background

Multi-proxy temperature reconstructions have increased our understanding of past climate variability and set the recent warming and future climate scenarios in a historical context. Precipitation has increased by 10–40% during the 20th century over northern Europe , and increased precipitation over Fennoscandia over the past decades has caused the region to become more oceanic. However, future precipitation increases are expected outside summer; climate simulations indicate drier summers.

Summer droughts can have devastating impact on the natural environment by reducing water availability and agriculture and water supply are the two economic sectors that may be most severely affected by summer drought. Also, dryer conditions will lead to higher fire hazard.

In Fennoscandia a few studies have examined 20th century precipitation variability, but little attention has been paid to the past or spatiotemporal patterns of climatic extremes such as drought. Consequently, there exist a need for developing high-quality and high-resolution precipitation reconstructions. Precipitation dynamics in Fennoscandia are linked to changes in sea level pressure. The most recent modelling results highlight high uncertainly in predicting future precipitation over southern Scandinavia, primarily due to opposing effects of predicted higher moisture content of maritime air (acting towards higher precipitation) and decreased Atlantic flow (acting towards lower precipitation).

Fire conditions in the temperate forest of Northern Europe is related to North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) variability. By understanding the coupling between circulation patterns and weather conditions favourable for forest fire activity, it is possible to recognize thresholds in synoptic weather, associated with periods of increased fire activity and, therefore, major changes in ecosystem functioning (e.g. dynamics of carbon balance).